spacebayes is building world risk models for agriculture

This summer, persistent heat and water shortages cut EU summer crop yields by up to 14% below average and global food prices hit a three-year high.

Historical records alone are no longer good enough to forecast such extreme events.

Map of Europe showing the hottest daytime land surface temperature per location, Sentinel-3 SLSTR data, 18 to 30 June 2026
Diagram of the spacebayes model: stacked layers of satellite, climate and weather data feed a neural network, which outputs probability distributions of crop yield

At spacebayes, we fuse layers of satellite, climate, weather and historical data into a proprietary probabilistic model, combining natural catastrophe modeling with early yield forecasting, on regional and national levels.

What’s unique about our approach is that, besides yield, we forecast how multiple regions will behave together during extreme events.

Map of districts colored by forecast yield, with yield forecast ranges over time for the Börde and Helmstedt regions, showing the expected yield, the shortfall risk and lead time before harvest
Globe of Europe, Africa and Asia with a grid of regional yield-shortfall risk, shown for wheat, cacao, coffee and barley

Our goal is to create world risk models for agriculture: crop-specific, granular models of how extreme events affect yield shortfalls.

One model serves three market segments

Table: one model serves three market segments. Reinsurers ask how often multiple regions fail at once and get exposure across the whole portfolio, priced per analysis then a licence. Parametric insurers ask whether a county's yield will fall below th

Who we are

spacebayes brings together hands-on expertise in climate and probabilistic modeling, remote sensing and GIS engineering, with advisors from agronomy and financial economics.

Portrait of Dr. Olivera Stojanović, founder of spacebayes

Dr. Olivera Stojanović Founder
Geospatial, Bayesian modeling

Portrait of Varvara Vladimirova, Landscape Data Analyst

Varvara Vladimirova
Landscape Data Analyst

Portrait of William Henshaw, Geospatial Data Engineer

William Henshaw
Geospatial Data Engineer

Portrait of Olivia Jákli, Data Analyst, Remote Sensing

Olivia Jákli
Data Analyst, Remote Sensing

Join the wait list